Jewish demography today: maintenance or decline
Counting the Jews, a difficult undertaking
Counting the Jews is an old preoccupation of princes. Moreover, since biblical times, the Jews have tried, with greater or lesser success, to know their number. In the nineteenth century, when demography was beginning to become a “science,” governments in Europe and America introduced into the official censuses of their populations a question concerning religious or ethnic affiliations. Insofar as the clergy was salaried, it was necessary to know the number of adherents of each denomination. The advances of laïcité (secularism, the separation of state and religion) put an end to this practice. In France, any reference to confessional affiliation was abolished in 1872. In the French colonies, however, the official statistics recorded “Europeans,” distinguishing them from “natives”—Muslims, Jews, and possibly “others”—right up to the 1950s. Nonetheless, the Jewish communities, for their part, estimated the number of their members. This estimate was easier in small localities where everyone knew one another, and in countries where membership in a central confessional body was compulsory. Thus, in Germany and Austria, the dues paid to the various “Churches” were and still are included in the tax system. Large countries of immigration, such as the United States, were mainly interested in the geographic origin of immigrants and only incidentally in their ethno-religious affiliation. In the Soviet Union, the Jews were considered a “nationality” and counted as such insofar as they declared themselves Jews.
Any answer to a question as bound up with identity as confessional or ethno-religious affiliation can only be a self-definition that varies from one person to another.
Official censuses providing information on the distribution of the population by religion are hardly practiced anymore today. Among the Western democracies, only Canada and Switzerland still pose a question on this subject, yielding divergent and disputed results. Any answer to a question as bound up with identity as confessional or ethno-religious affiliation can only be a self-definition that varies from one person to another.
Yet some Jewish demographers have established a discipline called the “demography of the Jewish people.” Arthur Ruppin created, at the beginning of the twentieth century in Berlin, a “bureau for Jewish statistics” centralizing and publishing the available data.1 In 1907, Arthur Ruppin emigrated to Palestine, where he continued his demographic research on the Jewish people and trained disciples from the founding of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. Among them was Roberto Bachi, first the founder of the Central Bureau of Statistics of the State of Israel,2 then of a Research Unit at the Hebrew University today directed by Sergio Della Pergola. Since the 1960s, this team has centralized the statistical data relating to Jews throughout the world; it strives to elicit and coordinate socio-demographic surveys of the Jewries of the diaspora. The Israeli team works in close relation with demographers interested in the evolution of the Jews in many countries on every continent. The principal results of this research are published locally: their synthesis appears each year in the American Jewish Yearbook.3
Some current data.
According to these sources, 13 million Jews were living in the world at the end of 1994, of whom 34% in Israel and 66% in the diaspora. They are dispersed among some hundred countries on every continent. In the diaspora, the most numerous Jewries are those of the United States (5,575,000), France (530,000), Russia (375,000), Canada (360,000), the United Kingdom (294,000), Ukraine (210,000), Argentina (208,000), Brazil (100,000), South Africa (96,000), Australia (92,000), Germany (55,000), Hungary (54,000), and Mexico (40,800).
All these figures are estimates resting on the self-definition of individuals, even when they derive from official censuses conducted in Canada (1991), Mexico (1991), and Switzerland
(1990). The estimates combine several variables, among them the birth and death rates (in comparison with the populations of the countries concerned) and the migrations that were particularly significant over the course of the twentieth century.
These figures are often disputed by the national and/or international Jewish organizations: a Jewish community may have an interest in inflating its numerical importance in order to assert the social, cultural, or even political role it plays in its country. It may also, on the contrary, wish to underestimate or under-declare its number in case of discrimination or other restrictions on its freedom. In Europe, this difference among “community” estimates is illustrated in France and Great Britain. In France, a survey conducted by a Franco-Israeli team in the 1970s estimates that 535,000 Jews live in the country. A poll carried out in 1976 by the SOFRES places their number in a range of 600,000 to 700,000 (4). In Great Britain, a team of researchers attached to the Board of Deputies of British Jews regularly conducts local surveys and tracks the evolution of the available statistics. In 1967, it was estimated that 410,000 Jews lived in Great Britain; at the end of 1994, there would be no more than 294,000. This decline is gradual: it is explained by the fall in the birth rate, emigration, and mixed marriages. But every time a team of specialists announces a decline in the Jewish population of a country, it is sharply contested by the community authorities.
Counting the members of any minority whatsoever is always an adventure.
The figures we have cited convey tendencies rather than certainties. Counting the members of any minority whatsoever is always an adventure, even in countries where it does not enjoy all freedoms. In the second half of the twentieth century, the USSR was the most typical example. In principle, Jews were counted as a “nationality.” Officially, their number fell from 2,267,800 in 1959 to 1,450,500 in 1989. But Jews, especially if they were descendants of mixed couples, might not declare themselves as such. Since the opening of the borders, the formation of the new States of the CIS, European or Asian, and the independence of the Baltic countries have completely upended the demographic situation of the ex-Soviet Jewry.
In several countries, demographers and sociologists have practiced other
Studies
approaches to the knowledge of Jewish populations. In the United States, they have for several decades carried out local surveys. By different but partly comparative methods, national surveys were conducted in 1970/71 and in 1990.
The results of the American national survey carried out in 1990 confirm tendencies that may lead to a decline of the Jewish population.
The results of the American national survey carried out in 1990 confirm tendencies that may lead to a decline of the Jewish population: aging, low fertility (1.5), a strong increase in mixed marriages (between 1985 and 1990, exogamous marriages were twice as numerous as endogamous ones). Only 25% of the children of mixed couples received a Jewish education, 45% were raised in another religion, 30% with no religion. The non-Jewish spouse of the couple converts to Judaism more rarely than in the past, but a majority of the Jewish partners affirm their Judaism.
This survey, which contains other, more specific information on American Jewry, is today regarded by many Jewish leaders as a justification of the pessimistic forecasts regarding the demographic survival of the diaspora. Aging, the fall in the birth rate, and the difficulties of transmitting Jewishness to the descendants of mixed couples are indeed the principal factors of a possible decline. And in many countries of the diaspora, analogous tendencies are observed.
To these fears, the Israelis reply that they are faring better. But the reality today is somewhat different: Israeli society too is experiencing a certain aging; the birth rate is falling, dropping in the Jewish population from 3.1 in the years 1950–1954 to 1.81 in 1995 (6). The massive immigration of ex-Soviet Jews poses, with an acuteness never before known, the problem of the identity of the descendants of mixed couples: they will, to be sure, receive an Israeli education, but they risk not being recognized as Jews by the Israeli rabbinate when they wish to marry.
The ex-Soviet Jews risk not being recognized as Jews by the Israeli rabbinate when they wish to marry.
Doris Bensimon: Jewish demography today
The history of the Jewish people is marked by forced or voluntary migrations. In the twentieth century, the Jewish populations moved massively. In the first three decades of this century, Jews, the majority originating from Eastern Europe and in smaller numbers from the former Ottoman Empire, migrated westward—preferably to the Americas, but also to the countries of Central and Western Europe, South Africa, Australia, and, in smaller numbers, to Palestine, which had become, after the First World War, the Jewish National Home under British mandate. Insofar as they could escape Nazi persecution and find a land of refuge, Jews left the countries occupied by the Germans.
The fall of the Berlin Wall allowed the Jews of the former USSR to depart for other skies.
In the aftermath of the Second World War, among the millions of displaced persons, Jews sought refuge; the State of Israel received a large number of them, but others settled in the diaspora. The creation of the State of Israel in 1948, accompanied by the Israeli-Arab conflict, resulted in the departure of the Jews of the countries of the Near and Middle East. The decolonization of the countries of North Africa accelerated this movement. Finally, the fall of the Berlin Wall allowed the Jews of the former USSR to depart for other skies. As a result, the history of the Jewish people is marked in the twentieth century not only by the transfer of its principal demographic centers but also by that of its cultural poles, which are today located in Israel and the United States.
The Jewish population of France doubled between 1955 and 1965 thanks to the arrival of the Jews of Algeria, Tunisia, and Morocco.
From its creation, Israel set itself the mission of the “ingathering” and the fusion of the “exiles.” This process, however, is not complete. The migrations that continue have transformed, and are still transforming, the Jewries of the diaspora. Only a part of the Jews who, over the course of the second half of the twentieth century, left their country of birth emigrated to Israel. Others joined Jewries of the diaspora.
These diasporic migrations can completely modify the demographic situation of a Jewry. The Jewish population of France doubled between 1955 and 1965 thanks to the arrival of the Jews
of Algeria, Tunisia, and Morocco. The Jewries of Austria and Germany were reconstituted, after the Shoah, by the influx of Jews originating from Eastern Europe. This movement accelerated after the fall of the Berlin Wall: in Germany, since the end of the 1980s, the Jewish population has doubled, rising from 30,000 to probably 60,000 persons thanks to the immigration of Soviet Jews.
One could cite other cases: a portion of the Jews of North Africa, Moroccans above all, immigrated to Quebec, where they founded the French-speaking Jewish community; Maghrebi Jews recreated a community in Spain. Insofar as they can leave Islamist Iran, the Jews head not only toward Israel but above all toward other countries of the diaspora, including Australia.
In contact with modernity, the birth rate, once high in the traditional communities, fell sharply over the course of these migrations, which demanded an adaptation to industrial and even post-industrial civilizations. With the exception of the Orthodox and especially the ultra-Orthodox milieus with high fertility, this rate does not reach the threshold (2.1) ensuring the reproduction of a human group. Now, the Orthodox milieus are a minority: according to the American national survey of 1990, only 6% of respondents were affiliated with an Orthodox synagogue.
The growth of the Jewish population of a country—and this phenomenon exists in the diaspora—is the consequence of migrations. Now, migrations are transfers of populations that do not reflect any numerical increase of Jews in the world.
From a statistical point of view, great migratory movements occur only on the basis of a reservoir of candidates for emigration. From 1850 to 1940, the principal “source” of Jewish migrations was the countries of Eastern and Central Europe. These centers were destroyed by the Shoah. After the creation of the State of Israel, the Jewish communities of the Arab countries fed the principal waves of emigration. There remained the USSR, which finally opened its borders. Today, even this source of emigration is on the point of running dry. In the near future, the Jews will be able to count only on their children to ensure at least the maintenance of their communities in the world.
When one takes a long view—over the span of a century—the forecast of demographic maintenance is questionable. In 1900, according to the most serious estimates, 10,600,000 Jews were living
in the world; in 1940, there were 16,600,000; the Shoah reduced them to 11,000,000; half a century later, they are barely 13,000,000 (7). The demographic losses suffered during the Shoah have not been made good.
Demography and identity
Any socio-demographic research presupposes a definition of Jewish identity. Israeli and American demographers consider as “Jewish” those respondents who self-define as such for religious or cultural reasons, on account of their ancestry, or by their choice (notably conversion to Judaism). In the American survey of 1990 (cf. note 5), this group is defined as the “core” (core in English) of the Jewish population: it is estimated at 5,515,000 persons. But the surveys are conducted among families that may be composed of one or more Jews of the “core” and of non-Jewish persons (Jews converted to another religion, non-Jewish partners, and children of these couples): this population, called the “enlarged Jewish” population, is estimated at 8,190,000 persons.
The difference between these two estimates is obvious: it poses the whole problem of decline, of maintenance, and above all of a possible increase of the Jewish milieus. The definitions of Jewish identity by the demographers are not those of the halakha, the rabbinic legislation according to which “a Jew is one who is born of a Jewish mother.” But they challenge us regarding the heterogeneity, regarding the multiple intercultural and interconfessional relations of the Jewish milieus. The definition of Jewishness is today becoming the crucial problem of the Jews of Eastern Europe. In all the countries that were for seventy years in the case of the USSR, forty years in the other countries under communist rule, the transmission of Jewishness was very difficult. Mixed marriages multiplied; parents often hid their Jewish origin from their children. Today, some discover and lay claim to it: but who welcomes them without demanding a conversion that many refuse? Only secular Jewish movements can accomplish this task. Jewish numbers and identities are closely linked in the demography of the Jewish people.
Who is a Jew? This question will perhaps soon interest demographers working under other
The definitions of Jewish identity by the demographers are not those of the halakha.
Studies
skies. The dream of reunion with the descendants of the ten lost tribes returns more than ever; historians and ethnologists take an interest in it. And already the Israeli government is worried: what will be done with the Asians and the Africans, not to mention certain South American groups who lay claim to their Jewish origins?
Will we have the courage to welcome all those who affirm themselves as Jews without being recognized as such by bodies too closed in upon themselves?
NOTES
RUPPIN (Arthur), Die Juden der Gegenwart: the first edition of this work appeared in Germany in 1904. Others followed. In 1934, the éditions Payot published in French the latest update of Ruppin’s research, Les Juifs dans le monde moderne (The Jews in the Modern World), Paris, 387 pp.
Since 1950, the Central Bureau of Statistics, Jerusalem, publishes each year, in addition to its occasional reports, the Statistical Abstract of Israel, the principal source on the demographic evolution of Israeli society (volume 47, 1996 is the source of this article for the Israeli population)
The American Jewish Committee, American Jewish Yearbook, New York (volume 96–1996 is the principal statistical source of this article)
Decline, maintenance, or increase of the number of Jews in the world? The question remains open: the answer will vary according to the definition of Jewish identity. Will we be reduced to the “small remnant” according to too narrow a definition? Or, on the contrary, will we have the courage to welcome all those who affirm themselves as Jews without being recognized as such by bodies too closed in upon themselves? As secular Jews, we have a role to play in the cultural—which is also demographic—maintenance of the Jewish people. •
BENSIMON (Doris), DELLA PERGOLA (Sergio), La population juive de France : socio-démographie et identité (The Jewish Population of France: Socio-demography and Identity), Jerusalem, The Institute of Contemporary Jewry, Paris, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, 1984, 436 pp.
The principal results of the 1990 national survey were published by Sidney Goldstein in American Jewish Yearbook, vol. 92, 1992, pp. 77–173
Statistical Abstract of Israel, vol. 47, 1996, p. 100
BARNAVI (Elie) (ed.), Histoire universelle des Juifs. De la Genèse à la fin du XXe siècle (A Universal History of the Jews: From Genesis to the End of the Twentieth Century), Paris, Hachette, 1992, pp. XII–XIII
•
RUPPIN (Arthur), Die Juden der Gegenwart: the first edition of this work appeared in Germany in 1904. Others followed. In 1934, the éditions Payot published in French the latest update of Ruppin’s research, Les Juifs dans le monde moderne (The Jews in the Modern World), Paris, 387 pp.↩︎
Since 1950, the Central Bureau of Statistics, Jerusalem, publishes each year, in addition to its occasional reports, the Statistical Abstract of Israel, the principal source on the demographic evolution of Israeli society (volume 47, 1996 is the source of this article for the Israeli population).↩︎
The American Jewish Committee, American Jewish Yearbook, New York (volume 96–1996 is the principal statistical source of this article).↩︎